It is entirely mad to draw too many conclusions from a local council by-election fought in unusual times.

It is still, however, interesting, especially when the circumstances are as unusual as those in the case of Irwell Riverside Ward in the City of Salford and the constituency of Hazel Blears, the diminutive and embattled Communities Secretary.

The headline result – that Labour held the seat with a reduced majority, does not tell us much that’s remarkable – there is nothing odd about a majority dropping from 31.6% (in 2008) to 19.4% on a low poll at a by-election held at a bad time of the incumbent party. Below the surface, however, there is more interest in what happened to the main parties.

First of all very few voted – turnout fell from a feeble 20.6% in 2008 to pathetic 17.5%. Secondly more candidates stood at this by-election – six, compared with four last year. More candidates always means that the vote will be more fragmented and the share of the main parties will be reduced. The BNP stood and came a close fourth 53 votes behind the Tories last time – so they were not coming from nowhere.

In this by-election the three parties not represented in Parliament pulled a combined total of 32.4% – Labour won with 37.6% and all three ‘parliamentary’ parties lost share of the vote. Labour’s share fell by 13.3% but did not, as some had feared, desert to the BNP on mass – possibly because the BNP had already taken the proportion of Labour vote susceptible to their appeal. The Greens and UKIP* took 7.7% and 7.6% respectively.

Labour had previously had close calls in this ward with the Liberal Democrats as the main opposition. This wasn’t good for Labour, but it wasn’t close by any means, The LibDem vote has fallen back markedly over the past few years. They were still closest to Labour this time with 18.2% – a pretty ropey second place.

Overall this by-election is further evidence of the likelihood of a large shift towards the parties not represented in the UK parliament with the Greens as the easy option for Labour voters disaffected by schemes to do up the semi-detached second homes of their MPs and UKIP benefitting from Conservative supporters alienated by moats, chandeliers, wisterias and duck islands.

The BNP, not by these standards an automatic choice for working class Labour protest voters, may not have the resources or the spread of support to make the threshold necessary to gain a European seat. Let’s hope not.

There is sufficient indication here, were any more needed, that the onus is on the main parties to muck out the stables long before a General Election is called.

Hazel Blears’ majority over the Conservatives in Salford and Eccles (implied calculations from new boundaries from Electoral Calculus) is 17.75%. Based on the kind of swing seen in the snapshot at Irwell Riverside she should be worried. Her survival would depend on a similar dissipation of protest votes – were those votes to have a focus. However, her new seat would considerably less safe than was, say Tatton in 1997. It would need a celebrity candidate but it is possible.

That brings me, in conclusion, to a series of trivial connections here. Salford is an appropriate place for news indicating a plague on all the political houses to break on the morning of the 50^th birthday of Salford’s most famous son (Irish Blood, English Heart).

Also ironically, Ms Blears, played a street urchin in the film version of A Taste of Honey Shelagh Delaney’s grimfest drama which was the fountain head of so many of Mozza’s Smith’s period lyrics. “I dreamt about you last night and I fell out of bed twice”.

“I declare Steven Patrick Morrissey, commonly known as Mozza, elected …” Surely not?

Happy birthday Mozza!