Labour Leadership: New Front Runner Emerges
In a five candidate poll under first past the post 30% can be a winning total and 40% is usually comfortable. To poll more than 50% of the vote in a five candidate poll is a very good result indeed. Polling 77.5% as did Josie Gibson, the winner of Channel 4′s Big Brother 11, is something else entirely.
In what could be seen as a bad omen for Nick Clegg, the dying reality show abandoned the ‘eliminating ballot’ (AV – sort of) that had been the norm for its final show and went for a first-past-the-post vote.
Ms Gibson, whose common touch that most politicians would gladly murder their granny to possess, emerged from the House to her interview making two snappy points, promoting her charity and commenting on the level of ‘care’ provided to disabled service folk; a textbook lesson in how to take control of an interview.
Meanwhile, as their leadership contest grinds towards its final weeks what would Labour supporters give for a result even half as decisive as Ms Gibson’s victory? Though the bookmakers still price Milliband D as odds on favourite at around 2/5, Milliband E at around 2/1 means they are far from certain, but nobody is offering odds on the next leader being called Milliband.
In decisive leadership contests leaders usually come through to shine*. So far nobody has done so. There is no clear front runner, nobody looks unstoppable. Nobody is confidently predicting anything because nobody knows what will happen.
Big Brother’s ratings fell alongside Labour’s and now the show has run out of road too. If it were possible to persuade Endemol to hand the disused Big Brother House to the Labour Party the candidates could be persuaded to enter the house and we could just leave them there. After all, as long as they think they are on tele most politicians will be happy to stay forever.
* Though not necessarily to win by miles. The Labour leader elected with the lowest share of the Electoral College vote to date was one A.C.L Blair




