The result in Barnsley Central is further evidence that the Liberal Democrat vote, a subject long pondered by number crunchers and certainly the home of opportunist protest and tactical voting, has been on the whole more anti-Tory than anti-Labour.

Barnsley Central wasn’t exactly ideal turf for Labour. It was a rock solid safe seat, sure, but Labour caused the by-election with the former MP going down for dodgy expenses antics. It is also a place where the BNP had been trying to get a foothold – they got someone elected in the European region. The Liberals were second at the General Election.

One might have expected punishment. Such circumstances can result in underwhelming or embarrassing by-election performances and very low turnouts.

The turnout was certainly low at 36.5%, but Labour’s vote, at 14,724 was only down 2,763 in absolute terms while rocketing 13.5% in terms of share of the vote. The Liberal vote dropped by a similar amount and the Conservatives did badly too. The evidence from Oldham East and Saddleworth is compounded here. The inescapable conclusion is that the Liberal Democrat vote is not just staying at home, but is switching to Labour in significant numbers.

The BNP’s 6% will disappoint them and delight others. UKIP, their blazer wearing brothers, came second but it was hardly a breakthrough. In fact the vote of the ‘others’ rising by 8.5% is mot a whole lot more than might be expected at a by-election.

A 9% swing to Labour will lead to all sorts of predictions of meltdown at the Local Elections in May, and where there are ‘all out’ councils there could be some significant changes. However the Conservative vote is likely to hold up better than this and the Liberal Democrats may do a little better where they have an effective local representative which may retain some seats at the margin. However where their perfectly respectable and articulate candidate gets fewer votes than one of the independents what price some of the bog-eyed oddities they collect at local government level (though all parties have a few of those, the LibDems by virtue of being a smaller party have more than their fair share of social misfits).

It’s always nice when expected punishment doesn’t materialise. It’s certainly a moment for Labour supporter to enjoy.