10pm and the polls have closed.

At risk of becoming a latter day Bob Marshall Andrews, the former Labour MP who in 2005 won his Medway constituency with relative comfort after laying blame for losing firmly at Tony Blair’s door before the votes were actually counted, it is high time to lay the catastrophe that was the AV referendum firmly at the door of Nick Clegg.

It is popular sport, though by no means a cohesive political strategy, to lay the blame for all of the vile acts of the coalition at the door of Mr Clegg. Irritating though he is, this is probably a little unfair. Even a good mate of mine who has made something of a sport of hunting the yellow peril to extinction told me I was being unfair to lay the blame of the AV debacle so squarely on the member for Sheffield Nicepart.

The result of the General Election 12 months ago presented the Liberal Democrats with a serious choice that they had not expected to face. Hung parliaments don’t usually happen. Faced with three possibilities the Liberal Democrats had to choose something. Labour never had the numbers to hold on to power nor the mandate to remain in Government which left a coalition or a Conservative minority government with passive Liberal support. Mr Clegg made the mistake understandable for a politician who had never run anything in his life – he equated position with power. He would contend that the coalition was all about the public good, the bigger picture, but in reality it is inconceivable that political calculation didn’t play a significant part.

In the 32 years since the Liberals last had the chance to influence government the manta that electoral reform was the basic price of any arrangement involving the Liberals/SDP/Liberal SDP Alliance/Social and Liberal Democrats/LibDems was recited. It was the only contestant in the shifting sands of the third party. It was the article of faith above all others. Nick Clegg’s ineptitude has set the cause of electoral reform back 25 years.

Why Nick and not Ed? Mr Miliband’s failure to deliver his party, where a significant majority of the membership have long since supported a move from first past the post, was certainly a let down. But however myopic Labour’s powerbrokers may have been while trying their leader’s hands, it never going to be Ed driving the legislative engine. If battles require strategies and strategies are driven by generals the it is Mr Clegg who stands culpable.

First Mr Clegg accepted a coalition agreement that provided for a referendum, not on the open question of electoral change, but on a specific system. That system was one on which his personal position was on the record and unfortunately quotable, yet his department was to lead on the question. He was inevitably going to be indentified with the cause – just something else on which he was seen to change his mind. He then chose the timing. One year after the General Election on a local election day in most of England, a General Election day in the other nations, and no elections at all in the capital. Not exactly a level playing field and not the political focus of most of those involved – very bad decisions and down to Mr Clegg.

Having chosen the date and the context the pro-AV campaign was nonetheless leaderless. Arguing for change in tough economic times is always a challenge – even when your battlebus has a decent driver. With Ed Miliband in handcuffs, his party members and their local organisations under an absurd diktat to say nothing, the ‘YES’ campaign was a very broad church with no pontiff and no mechanisms for activating support at ground level. Meanwhile the No campaign had its narrow focus and its ready-made organisation – the Tory Party. In this respect having few other supporters beyond the BNP and a motley collection of self-interested Labour turkeys seeking to avoid a ballot on Christmas, the ‘NO’ campaign had a distinct advantage – a clear delivery mechanism and a recognisable leader – the Prime Minister. The vacuum in the ‘YES’ camp allowed ‘NO’ supporters to define Nick Clegg as the poster boy of AV. They thought he was such an asset they put him all over their own leaflets. Ed Miliband may have been right to have said that the best thing Nick Clegg could do for AV was to hide for the duration, but it was never going to happen. I am still waiting for my ‘YES’ leaflet to arrive.

So you choose the terms, the date, the context, don’t bother to get your troops organised and are the de-facto leader. That looks to me like a pretty good argument for the attribution of blame.

Electoral reform was meant to define the success or otherwise of the Liberal Democrats in government. Ironically the first years of Labour Government delivered electoral reform in Scotland, Wales, London to an extent and for European Elections. The Liberal Democrats look set to deliver nothing.